Back in mid-October, I wrote a post in which I reported on what Carnac the Magnificent predicted was likely to happen regarding Keith Alan Raniere AKA Vanguard and all his pending legal issues.
Below is a summary of those predictions – and updates regarding what’s happened during the ensuing three weeks.
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Carnac’s Predictions RE: Raniere v. Merrick Garland Et Al
Sometime before November 15, 2022, U.S. District Court Judge Raner C. Collins will do the following:
- Deny Keith’s Motion to File a Second Amended Complaint;
- Deny Keith’s Motion for an Extension of the Filing Deadline regarding his Reply to the defendants’ Response to the Motion for a Temporary Restraining Order or a Preliminary Injunction;
- Deny Keith’s Motions for a Temporary Restraining Order or a Preliminary Injunction regarding his ongoing incarceration in the Special Housing Unit (SHU) at USP Tucson ; and
- Grant the Defendants’ Motion to Dismiss– and, in the related Order, admonish Keith’s attorney, Stacey Scheff, for filing actions and motions regarding matters for which her client has failed to exhaust his available administrative remedies per the U.S. Bureau of Prisons’ Administrative Remedy Program.
Updates
- Judge Collins has not yet issued a ruling regarding Keith’s request that he be allowed to file a Second Amended Complaint;
- On October 21st, Judge Collins granted a one-week extension for Keith’s attorney to file a Reply;
- On November 3rd, Judge Collins denied Keith’s Motions for a Temporary Restraining Order or a Preliminary Injunction – meaning that Keith will remain in the SHU at USP Tucson until the prison decides to move him elsewhere;
- Judge Collins has not yet issued a ruling regarding the defendants’ Motion to Dismiss the entire lawsuit.
On the same day that Judge Collins issued his Order denying Keith’s requests for a Temporary Restraining Order or a Preliminary Injunction, Keith’s attorney, Stacy Scheff, filed another Motion for a Temporary Restraining Order. If granted, the new motion would force the USP Tucson Warden to immediately release Keith from the SHU – and return him to the general population at the facility.
This time, however, the request was strangely labeled as “Urgent” – which, when you’re talking about Temporary Restraining Orders, is always the case.
Accompanying the new motion was a “Declaration of Keith Raniere” in which he revealed several allegations and claims that had not previously been disclosed. These include, but were not limited to, the following:
- He’s been in the SHU for more than 100 days;
- He’s been subjected to various types of retaliation since he was placed at USP Tucson;
- He’s been told that he’s going to be transferred from USP Tucson to another federal prison because he’s had too many legal calls and legal visits;
- He’s concerned that if he’s transferred to another prison he’ll be assaulted or killed by other prisoners because of the “high profile nature” of his case – and the nature of the crimes he was convicted of committing;
- Nicki Clyne is now operating an outreach program via which she “assists prisoners with research, connecting with family, and other basic needs” – and has been in touch with many, if not all, of the prisoners she has been helping for the last two-and-a half-years; and
- While a search was being undertaken of the SHU cell he shares with William Anthony Fly, Keith was forced to sit in a 3’x3′ “cage” that was contaminated with feces (Exhibiting the same math skills that made him a 2.26 GPA student at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), Keith actually counted 2 piles of feces on the floor – and 19 streaks of feces on the walls).
Summary
As of November 8th, Carnac has one (1) correct prediction, one (1) incorrect prediction, and two (2) unresolved predictions regarding the case of Raniere v. Merrick Garland Et Al. A further update regarding this matter will be provided on or about November 15th.
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Carnac’s Predictions RE: Pending Appeal
Sometime before November 30, 2022, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit will release its opinion regarding Keith’s pending appeal of his conviction on seven felony counts in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York (EDNY) – and will deny each and every aspect of that appeal.
Updates
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has not yet issued its opinion regarding Keith’s pending appeal.
Summary
As of November 8th, Carnac has one unresolved prediction regarding Keith’s direct appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. A further update regarding this matter will be provided on or about November 30th.
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Carnac’s Predictions RE: Pending Motions in the EDNY
Keith currently has two pending motions in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York: i.e., one that was filed per Rule 33 of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure in which Keith is requesting that he be granted a new trial based upon evidence that he claims was first discovered after he was convicted on all seven counts at the conclusion of his trial in June 2019 – and another requesting that Judge Garaufis recuse himself from ruling on Keith’s Rule 33 Motion.
Carnac has predicted that Judge Garaufis will deny both of those pending motions.
Updates
As of November 8th, Judge Garaufis has not issued any decision with respect to Keith’s two pending motions in the EDNY.
Summary
As of November 8th, Carnac’s predictions regarding the outcome of Keith’s two pending motions are both unresolved. A further update regarding this matter will be provided on or about November 30th.
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Carnac’s New Predictions
Well before the latest asinine filing by Stacy Scheff in Keith’s pending lawsuit against the U.S. Attorney General and various other government officials and institutions, Carnac shared with me that Keith was going to be transferred from USP Tucson to another federal prison.
At that time, Carnac indicated that the primary reason why Keith was going to be transferred included his insistence upon filing a federal lawsuit before he had exhausted his administrative remedies with regard to the underlying issues in that lawsuit – and then flooding the presiding judge and the defendants’ attorneys with numerous baseless motions.
Thus, while Keith may have been told that he was being transferred because he’s had too many legal visits and too many legal phone calls, those things very likely have nothing to do with his transfer out of USP Tucson.
Instead, he will be transferred for, once again, thinking that he does not have to follow the rules that apply to every other federal prisoner in the U.S.
Although Carnac has not yet predicted which federal prison will become Keith’s next home-away-from-home, he did mention three possibilities: ADX Florence in Colorado, USP Beaumont in Texas, and USP Thomson in Illinois.
If it turns out that the BOP is actually considering those three prisons, then the safest possibility for Keith would be ADX Florence.
While he might not enjoy the harsh conditions at ADX Florence, at least Keith will be safe there.
Should, however, Keith be assigned to either of those other two prisons, Carnac does not believe that he will survive more than six months.
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Author’s Note
Keith appears to have assembled his own version of OJ Simpson’s “Dream Team” to pursue his various appeals and adversarial actions. And they may – individually and collectively – be some of the smartest attorneys in the country.
Unfortunately for Keith, none of his current attorneys appear to know jack-shit about how things work in prison – and, as a result, they have individually and collectively provided him with little or no practical advice in terms of how to survive there (It’s also possible that someone has given Keith such advice, but that Keith has simply chosen to ignore it).
Adding to this semi-tragic tale is the fact that some of Keith’s most ardent followers have also rejected help that was offered to them by one of the foremost authorities in the country regarding the BOP’s Administrative Remedy Program.
It kind of makes you wonder if some of these followers really do want Keith to ever get out of prison…
